right now today gpu markets are irrational
what does that mean for you if you're a gpu miner especially if you're a gpu miner on eth and
especially if you intend to go long term on mining after eth 2.0 comes out what does this mean for
you so strap in let's dive into all of this here so let me go over why i'm saying that the
gpu used market is currently irrational the used prices for gpus that i've been
talking about on here for the past couple of you know maybe months here has been something
that i've now researched somebody clued me and they said look at the new prices that have
just come out i looked at new prices this is actually been going on for about a week that
the prices have actually crossed the threshold of where people are selling their used gear for
that's irrational nobody should be buying a used gpu that's the exact same gpu that they
can buy new for the exact same price that doesn't make sense so let's talk about
that irrationality i've seen this before and i'm going to talk to you about when i saw
it before what kind of things happened then this was a historical time that i saw it i think
that it will be interesting we're also going to talk about the hashplosion we're going to look
at youth 2.0 timelines and we're also going to examine in depth those local and new markets all
right so i did a video yesterday on the eth merge we talked about some of the things that came
out there is a delay that is imminent it sounds like for the 2.0 merge coming down the pipeline
this is going to be that's fairly significant now i thought it was funny uh a lot of people
actually had no idea of the historical context of eve delaying things eve is like the ethereum
foundation the people behind eat the core devs they are epic at delaying things so i did a thread
on twitter and i talked about some historical perspective gave a lot of links regarding the
many many times that eth has actually talked about the merge releasing the merge missed timelines
shifted the goals so do check this out also links to all this stuff in the description below i also
showed off some of my old gpu mining rigs awesome led lights i liked those lights a lot i'm gonna
definitely be getting some for the chia farm uh so that was in the conference call that the
merge has been talked about now being delayed it looks like they want to shift the timeline between
the test net releases from one week to up to four weeks and that could add on several months all
right so let's talk about what somebody clued me in on with the irrationality between those
markets 3080 tis on newegg and we can see that we've got the vision rtx 12 gigabyte card 3080 ti
12.99 not a bad price right here's where you get a disconnect you've got 1200 for a not great card
here uh you've got some other cards that are right up there past that price point 13.25 so things
don't make sense that's an irrational market especially when considering you can actually get
a vision rtx for 12.99 here on best buy also links to all this stuff below also links to amazon let's
see what the local markets look like for 30 80 tis complete disconnect from reality this is not
a 3080 ti this is a 3080.
The 3080 ti that we see here 1400 and then up to 1500 this was
the pricing as of weeks ago let's check out facebook maybe facebook marketplace is a little
better nope not at all this is an irrational marketplace now i was here and i was like holy cow
they're actually wanting a thousand dollars for 30 70 ti so let's check out 30 70 ti's okay go get
yourself a 30 70 ti for today today for 850 off of best buy on ebay not even close to that price uh
so people have a disconnect let's check craigslist real quick here and no so what does this mean
this means people have not reflected the price realities of the availability of new stock in
what they're selling used so the recapture of your capital expenditures is something that a lot
of miners out there think about especially when you have a horizon and timeline that you know they
were talking about june just a couple months away and now they're talking about possibly november
this is classic this is they've done this so many times so don't be surprised when this gets shifted
again uh but this makes planning really hard because definitely once they do do youth 2.0 then
it's all in uh then there's you know no mining ethereum anymore that is an induced hashplosion i
don't know if that term has been come up with yet but i am definitely using that term i thought
of it yesterday and i thought wow this is a hashplosion for whoever is going to be receiving
all of that network cash rate and so i thought wow this is actually strategic almost because they're
competitors that might be coming up that might be developing really cool ecosystems themselves
not necessarily the web 3 people not necessarily people dealing with other proof of stake but
certainly people dealing with gpu mineables this hashplosion may not be something that these
people want to have happen to their chain to have all of these people come in and possibly destroy
the economics of it is probably not what they want to see happen so what happens when all this hash
rate moves from ethereum to x to y to z a lot of people are talking about a lot of people have
the same feeling not a good thing i don't know send out below let me know what your thoughts are
on that i think we will see a point where we have a reality check on used prices for gear we haven't
seen that reality hit the wider market space yet now let's talk about when that did happen in the
past so in 2018 there was going into this time frame kind of right around where we are right
now march april there was a massive sell-off of people's gpu equipment that happened as a result
of this was just the price trending that we saw happen with ethereum and a significantly sharp
downward trend now by the summer of 2018 it was absolutely a market that was just saturated with
graphics cards on the used marketplace people were scooping those up avoiding buying new graphics
cards that led to nvidia having like a pretty bad quarter there was some talk about the crypto
hangover and all sorts of stuff from their ceo at the time so that had a lot of ramifications
because there was a glut of used gear that went for i mean drastically cheaper prices we're
talking like a third of what people were paying for them just a few months ago now those were
inflated prices not quite as inflated as what we've seen this go around but definitely still
very inflated and so way under msrp for cards that had just actually come out in many instances
so what is going to happen this time whenever the market reality hits that there's only x number
of months around people will make a decision that decision will be either i'm staying and mining and
i will see what happens or it's time for me to get out there's people definitely making the choice to
get out right now and the economics of that still are fairly in their favor at this moment like i
mentioned the pricing reality doesn't seem to be reflected yet in used markets versus new markets
but the new markets are going to be bringing chips on board at a price that is not going to be
as high as it was in the past the availability is going to be much greater because people see the
writing on the wall with the merge so they're not buying brand new gear with the intention
of setting up a gigantic farm necessarily so at this point there's an inflection i think we're
at an equilibrium point where we're probably going to see some pretty dramatic prices happen on the
used markets as that reality hits them also that there's new gear available and i think the demand
is probably going to shift very fast from people that are traditionally buying it at a higher price
this is probably a lot of people that are in the gaming sphere looking for a graphics card and
they're looking at hey i can actually go and get that graphics card over on a new marketplace i got
links to a crazy one that just happened on amazon and i mean it was very cheap for a 30-70 ti so
i mean i think that probably is something that's going to be in effect that we'll we will see
increase that will limit the availability of buyers on the secondary market places that are
intending to use it for that purpose that means who's going to be buying them on the secondary
marketplaces probably people that are actually like interested in continuing their operations as
a miner that probably will happen i know that i kept going with just the gear that i had for quite
a while after that and you can only mine so long in the negative before it really just you know
eats a little bit too much money so let's talk about that particularly let's take a look at the
breakdown of where we're at today on the different cryptos we've got our hashrate set up here we've
got seven 30 80 ti's i think we've seen that that definitely fits inside a blueprint where you
would be able to price that out at the price that they actually are this is again targeting that ten
thousand dollar price point you're looking at 2183 on ethereum today now like i mentioned there are
like conflux ergo flux faro cerro these are all ones that have been up there i mentioned briefly
ethereum classic last time that is something that definitely is a potential for absorbing some
hashrate can any of these absorb the hashplosion that will be coming towards them that is a huge
question i cannot tell you whether or not they can uh let's take a look at asics and how asics are
doing today again that is at the 13 cents per kilowatt hour asics today ten thousand ish
dollar investment looking at 110 tara hash 250 watts ouch that's a lot of electricity and you
can see that you are getting about 12.48 cents uh and that is on bitcoin large amount of that still
going towards the electricity bill and let's take a look at chia again 13 cents same price point and
you're looking at about 13 38 on chia today so and that is at us average electric electricity rates
which is 13 cents per kilowatt hour currently you could be higher you could be lower definitely
if you're higher this affects you quite greatly and i've been getting a ton of feedback from
people in the eu telling me that they are higher than 0.25 cents per kilowatt hour and that
they're having tremendous rate increases year over year and that when their contracts are expiring
they're getting drastically higher rates so i guess there's a lot of contractual basis for how
you buy your electricity in the eu it sounds like those being negotiated rates at a fixed price
and then those renegotiated at a periodic interval maybe a year or something like that
maybe a couple of years i don't know exactly the time frame but that is something people
are telling me in the uk 40 cents equivalent us dollars seems to be what they're hitting
what happens if you're looking at 40 cents and so we're gonna examine what that looks like
if we take that hit here and so we're gonna see what that does to our earnings on a daily basis
and we can see that is a pretty steep hit a lot goes towards that electricity bill at this point
nine dollars and sixteen cents on ethereum uh at 40 cents that is a a huge reduction there
um let's check out the asic here and pop that in there with 40.
And again this is the s19 pro
that we're looking at here for this comparison and yeah you're losing money daily there and
that is a fair amount of money to lose daily i'm not sure you would stick at that point
uh that's gonna add up over the course of a month especially if you've got multiple rigs
and let's check chia and i think you'll see why exactly i like chia and that right there is
talking about why i like chia 10 and 38 cents so again you see why chia with its incredibly low
electricity footprint is just still going to be viable for some time into the future also you're
looking at a nascent technology that from its inception does not have any goal to become a proof
of stake and as a matter of fact the founders are very vocal about not becoming proof of mistake
so that is where i look at chia and i think longer term better play if you are interested in
going big but you don't want any of the overhead you should hit up evergreen miner talk to dylan
over there because they do that that's what they do i am an affiliate of them so i make some sort
of a commission off of the sale of one of those units but if you're looking for a pepe bite unit
and you don't want to actually plot it yourself you might have incredibly high electricity rates
then that's something that you should consider links to all of this stuff in the description
below it's enough let me know what you guys are thinking so i think there is a day of reckoning
coming for people that are gpu miners currently that are thinking of getting out and the timing
of that is going to be critical this becomes incredibly difficult with shifting timelines
around that everybody wants to optimize their profit that's mining cryptocurrencies especially
the larger your farm especially the larger your investment retaining that if you are getting out
is one thing if you're staying in that's one of the things that you want to be still possibly even
growing during that time period and you're hoping for that negative effect so that you can scoop
up those really cheap graphics cards send off below let me know what your plans are i find this
very interesting we're seeing something that we've never seen before in cryptocurrencies there's been
a sustained period of very high market activity that is exciting that tells me that there is a
level of acceptance there's a level of adoption and there's a level of understanding of
cryptocurrencies that even with bad news these cryptocurrencies just continue going and
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